Churn Project
Diana Mbiad-Galan; March 2, 2024Contents / Agenda
Executive SummaryBusiness Problem Overview and Solution ApproachEDA ResultsData PreprocessingModel Performance SummaryAppendix
Geographic location emerges as a notable factor, with a disproportionate number of customers from Germany ceasing their relationship with the bank compared to those from Spain and France, hinting at regional differences in customer satisfaction or service perception.Additionally, gender appears to play a role, with a higher churn rate observed among female customers. This could point to differing financial needs or experiences that are not being equally met across genders.Moreover, customer engagement significantly affects churn; inactive members show a greater tendency to leave the bank, underscoring the importance of regular interactions and consistent value delivery to retain clientele.Age also presents as a contributing factor; older customers are more likely to churn, possibly reflecting changing financial priorities or service
Adopt a holistic approach in its retention strategies, considering demographic, behavioral, and regional variables to effectively reduce customer attrition.
Models utilizing SMOTE to balance the dataset demonstrated superior recall, crucial for identifying at-risk customers.The introduction of the Adam optimizer significantly improved model recall compared to SGD.The inclusion of dropout regularization further enhanced the model’s ability to generalize, as indicated by the reduced gap
Final Model Selection: The Neural Network with SMOTE, Adam Optimizer, and Dropout emerged as the top-performing model. It achieved the highest recall rates while maintaining a satisfactory balance between training and validation performance, indicating a good fit with controlled overfitting. This model’s ability to generalize was further evidenced by its performance on the test data, with a relatively low rate of false negatives.
Deploy the Neural Network with SMOTE, Adam Optimizer, and Dropout for the churn prediction task.Monitor the model’s performance regularly to ensure consistency and adjust as necessary.
Median and Distribution: The median credit score is slightly above 650, indicating the central tendency of the dataset. The histogram shows a normal- like distribution with most of the data clustered around this median value.Lower End Outliers: There are outliers at
High-End Peak: There is an unusual
Age Distribution: The histogram illustrates that the age distribution is right-skewed, indicating a larger number of younger customers compared to older ones. The majority of customers are clustered in the 30-40 age range, with the count gradually decreasing for higher ages.Median Age: The bank’s median
Outliers: There are numerous outliers on the upper end of the age range in the
Substantial Zero Balance Count: There is a significant peak at the zero balance mark on the histogram. This indicates a large number of customers have a zero or very low current account balance. This could represent a specific customer segment, such as new accounts or dormant accounts.
Uniform Distribution: The histogram indicates a uniform distribution of estimated salaries across the entire range. This uniformity suggests that within this dataset, the salaries are spread out evenly from the lowest to the highest values.Median Salary: The box plot shows that the
No Significant Outliers: Neither the box plot
The bar chart indicates that 79.6% of customers have remained with the bank, while 20.4% have exited, suggesting that the bank maintains a majority of its customers but also faces a significant churn rate that could be of concern.The bar chart shows the distribution of the bank’s customers by geography, with the majority located in France (5014 customers), and a relatively equal but smaller number of customers in Germany (2509 customers) and Spain (2477 customers).The bar chart shows a slight gender disparity among the bank’s customers, with males (5457) slightly outnumbering females (4543).EDA Results – TenureThe bar chart presents the distribution of customers’ tenure with the bank, showing a relatively even distribution for durations from 1 to 9 years, but significantly fewer customers with a tenure of 0 or 10 years
EDA Results – Number of CustomersThere is nearly even split betweenMajority of customers have between 1-2 products with the bankMajority of customers have a credit cardactive (5151) and inactive (4849) members, indicating a balanced distribution of engagement among the bank’s customers. EDA: Bivariate AnalysisEDA Results – Correlation
Most variables have very low correlation with each other, with no strong direct
The most notable correlation is between ‘Age’ and ‘Exited.Additionally, there is a negative
A higher proportion of the bank’s customers in Germany have exited compared to those in Spain and France, indicating geographic variation in customer churn.A higher proportion of the bank’s customers who have exited are Female compared to Male.Having a credit card does not significantly affect the proportion of customers who have exited the bank.Inactive members have a higher rate of exiting the bank compared to active members.Exited & Credit Score, Age, and Tenure
The boxplot comparison of Credit Score and Exited shows that both customers who stayed and those who exited have a similar range of credit scores, with the median score being roughly equalCustomers who exited tend to be older, as indicated by a higher median age and more upper age outliers, compared to those who stayed.Customers who exited the bank have a wider range of tenure with a similar median tenure compared to those who stayed. Exited & Balance and Number of ProductsThe boxplot shows that both customers whoAccount balance does not appear to be a strong predictor of customer churn, since both median values and distribution ranges are quite similar across both groups.stayed and those who exited typically have a similar number of products from the bank; however, there are a few outliers among customers who stayed, indicating some with a higher number of products..Proprietary content. © Great Learning. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized use or distribution prohibited. Data Pre ProcessingData Preprocessing
Train validation-test SplitDummy variable creation for GeographyData Normalization: Since all the numerical values are on a different scale, I scaled all the numerical values to bring them to the same scale.There were no missing value
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Initial Spike: There’s an initial spike in recall for both the training and validation datasets.Training Recall: The recall on the training set rises sharply and then plateaus, indicating that the model has learned to identify
Validation Recall: The recall on the validation set also increases
The confusion matrix on the train data indicates that the model has a high true negative rate (5005 correctly predicted non-churners), but it struggles with identifying churners, with a large number of false negatives (1136 customers who churned but were not identified by the model) and a very low true positive rate (168 correctly predicted churners).This suggests that while the model is conservative in
The confusion matrix for the validation data shows that the model has a high true negative rate (78.31%) but a low true positive rate (1.88%), indicating it struggles to correctly identify customers who will churn.The model also has a relatively high false negative rate
Overall, the model may require adjustments to improve
Training Recall Improvement: The recall on the training
Validation Recall Variability: The recall on the validation set
Generalization Gap: There is a noticeable gap between the training and validation recall, with the training recall being higher. This gap could point to the model performing better on the training data than on the unseen validation data, which could be a sign of overfitting, especially since the validation recall does not reach the same level of performance.
The confusion matrix for the training data shows that the model has a high true negative rate (76.19% of the total data) but a relatively lower true positive rate (13.81% of the total data), indicating it is better at identifying customers who will not churn than those who will.The false negative rate is considerable (6.56%), which could
The false positive rate is 3.44%, representing customers who
Overall, the model may benefit from improvements to better
The confusion matrix for the validation data shows that the model correctly identified 74.50% of the non-churners (true negatives) and 10.38% of the churners (true positives), but there are also false negatives (10.00%) and false positives (5.12%), indicating that while the model is fairly good at predicting non-churners, it struggles more with correctly identifying churners.
There is an increase in recall on the training data indicating an improvement in the model’s ability to correctly classify the positive class. The subsequent up-and-down patterns suggests that the model is experiencing some variance in its predictions as it continues to learn from the training data.The validation recall converging with the training recall and
There is not a big gap in performance from the training and
The model correctly predicted ‘not exited’ (True Negative) for 4934 cases, which is 77.09% of the total predictions.It incorrectly predicted ‘exited’ (False Positive) for 162
It incorrectly predicted ‘not exited’ (False Negative) for 621 cases, which is 9.70% of the total.It correctly predicted ‘exited’ (True Positive) for 683
This matrix suggests that the model is relatively conservative at predicting ‘exited’ and tends to predict ‘not exited’ more often. The relatively high number of False Negatives compared to True Positives indicates that the model’s recall could be improved, as it’s missing a significant number of actual ‘exited’ cases.
True Negative (TN): 1223 customers were correctly predicted as not exited, comprising 76.44% of predictions.False Positive (FP): 51 customers were incorrectly predicted
False Negative (FN): 175 customers actually exited but were predicted as not exited, making up 10.94% of predictions.True Positive (TP): 151 customers were correctly predicted to have exited, which is 9.44% of predictions.This matrix indicates the model is better at predicting
The model still misses a significant number of customers who are likely to churn. The model’s precision and recall for predicting ‘exited’ customers could be improved.
Training Recall: The recall on the training set starts high and shows a sharp drop, which then gradually increases throughout the epochs. This pattern indicates an initial overfitting to the training set, which corrects itself as the model begins to generalize better with further training.Validation Recall: The validation recall initially follows
Convergence and Stability: As the epochs increase, the
Gap Between Training and Validation: There is a
True Negative (TN): 3741 cases were correctly predicted as non-churn (0), which is 36.71% of the predictions.False Positive (FP): 1355 cases were incorrectly predicted as churn (1), which is 13.29% of the predictions.False Negative (FN): 1367 cases were incorrectly predicted as non-churn (0), which is 13.41% of the predictions.True Positive (TP): 3729 cases were correctly predicted as churn (1), which is 36.59% of the predictions.
The model on the validation data predicted the on-churn correctly in 933 cases (58.31%).It incorrectly predicted churn for 341 cases (21.31%).The model incorrectly predicted non-churn in 102 cases
It correctly identified churn in 224 cases (14.00%).
Training Loss: The training loss shows a significant decrease initially, which levels off as epochs increase. This is indicative of the model quickly learning from the training data and then making incremental improvements as it begins to converge to a minimum loss value.Validation Loss: The validation loss decreases alongside the training
Divergence Between Losses: While both losses decrease, the gap
Stable High Training Recall: The recall on the training set quickly rises to a high level and remains consistently high throughout the training process. This indicates that the model has a strong ability to correctly identify the relevant class in the training data.Volatile Validation Recall: The validation recall is more volatile
Significant Gap Between Training and Validation: The
There is a large number of true negatives (TN): 4540 cases where the model correctly predicted the non-churn class, which makes up 44.54% of the total cases.There is a smaller number of false positives (FP): 556 cases
There is a considerable number of false negatives (FN): 987
There is a substantial number of true positives (TP): 4109
True Negative (TN): The model correctly predicted the ‘non- churn’ class for 1104 cases, accounting for 69.00% of the total predictions.False Positive (FP): There were 170 cases where the model
False Negative (FN): The model incorrectly labeled 130 cases
True Positive (TP): The model correctly identified 196 cases as
Training and Validation Loss: The training loss continues to decline over the 100 epochs, which is a good sign that the model is learning from the training data. However, the validation loss decreases to a point and then fluctuates, which suggests that the model may not be generalizing as effectively to the validation set after a certain number of epochs.Potential Overfitting: The divergence that begins to appear
Training Recall: The training recall begins at a higher value and shows a rapid increase, stabilizing at a high level of recall fairly early in the training process. This suggests that the model is effectively learning to identify the relevant patterns for the positive class in the training data.Validation Recall: The validation recall starts lower than the
Convergence and Divergence: There is no convergence seen
True Negatives (TN): The model correctly predicted the majority of the non-churn class (0) with 4194 cases, equating to 41.15%.False Positives (FP): There are 902 cases where the
False Negatives (FN): The model incorrectly predicted
True Positives (TP): The model correctly predicted churn for a significant number of cases (4355), accounting for 42.73%.
True Negatives (TN): 1025 instances were correctly predicted as class 0, which is 64.06% of the total.False Positives (FP): 249 instances were incorrectly predicted as class 1 when they were actually class 0, representing
False Negatives (FN): 96 instances were incorrectly predicted
True Positives (TP): 230 instances were correctly predicted as
Model Performance Summary
True Negatives (TN): 1266 cases were correctly predicted as non-churn, comprising 63.30% of total cases.False Positives (FP): 327 cases were incorrectly predicted as churn, which is 16.35% of the cases.False Negatives (FN): 107 cases were incorrectly predicted as non-churn, accounting for 5.35% of the cases.True Positives (TP): 300 cases were correctly predicted as churn, representing 15.00% of the cases.
Geographic Influence: There is a clear geographic pattern in customer churn, with Germany showing a higher churn rate. The bank should investigate regional service delivery and market competition to tailor strategies that address local customer needs.Gender-Based Trends: The higher churn among female customers suggests potential gaps in service or product offerings that resonate with
Engagement Levels: The link between customer activity and churn implies that engaging customers with regular, relevant interactions could be crucial in reducing churn. Programs to boost customer activity, such as personalized offers or financial advice, should be considered.Age-Related Patterns: The older demographic is more prone to churn, possibly due to unmet service expectations or changing financial needs.
Comprehensive Retention Strategy: Implement a data-driven retention strategy that integrates demographic, behavioral, and regional data to address the multifaceted nature of customer churn.Model Deployment and Monitoring: The Neural Network with SMOTE, Adam Optimizer, and Dropout should be deployed for predicting churn.
Further Research and Development: Ongoing research into additional factors influencing churn should be conducted. Qualitative data, such as
Cross-Functional Collaboration: Collaborate across marketing, product development, and customer service teams to implement the insights derived from the EDA and predictive models, ensuring that initiatives are aligned and synergistic in reducing churn.
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0=No ( Customeí did not leave the bank )
1=Yes ( Customeí left the bank )